Kazakhstan weather by month and region, from Shymkent to Pavlodar

Kazakhstan weather depends on where you stand more than on the month. Winter splits north and south hardest, summer narrows the gap, and rain falls at opposite times of year. The figures below are 2011-2020 averages for 20 cities and several mountain points, so use them for planning and check a forecast before you leave.

How far apart north and south really are

The Kazakhstan temperature gap is widest in January, when Shymkent averages 4.7 °C by day and Pavlodar −13.5 °C. That is 18.2 °C apart. In July the warmest city, Turkistan (36.9 °C), and the coolest, Petropavl (24.1 °C), are 12.8 °C apart.

Packing follows from this. For a winter trip, dress for the northernmost stop. For a summer trip, dress for the southernmost. Flying from Astana to Almaty in January moves you from a −12 °C daily norm to about 0 °C, and one coat will rarely suit both.

Kazakhstan weather by month

The table compares our 20 hub cities and shows the warmest and coolest daily highs and the coldest night in each month.

April has the narrowest gap, so it is the closest the country gets to one season, although it is also when the south is wettest. For choosing a travel month, see when to go.

Rain falls in spring in the south and summer in the north

Shymkent gets 4 mm of rain in July and 88 mm in April. Kokshetau is the reverse: 93 mm in July and 10 mm in February. “Dry summer” is true only in the south, and at the northern lakes you should expect July showers.

What this means for you: Almaty gets more rain in April alone (146 mm) than Kyzylorda gets in a whole year (122 mm), although both are in the south. Mountains make the difference, so a bright forecast for the plains says little about the valley above Almaty.

Shymkent weather

Shymkent, at 517 m, has the warmest January in the table: 4.7 °C by day and −4.0 °C at night. July reaches 34.2 °C (94 °F) with 19.8 °C nights and only 4 mm of rain. Most of its 563 mm a year falls between November and April. Spring and autumn are the comfortable seasons, and the city is at its most pleasant in April, May and October, although April is also its wettest month.

Turkistan to the north is hotter and much drier, with 36.9 °C in July and 256 mm a year. Taraz at 639 m is slightly cooler than Shymkent, at 33.7 °C in July and 1.3 °C in January.

Aktobe weather

Aktobe sits at 220 m and has a hard winter: −8.9 °C by day and −15.3 °C at night in January. July is 30.1 °C by day and 17.0 °C at night. Rain is spread evenly, between 16 and 34 mm every month, for 314 mm a year, so there is no real wet season to plan around.

Karaganda weather

Karaganda at 540 m is almost a copy of Astana: −10.8 °C by day and −18.0 °C at night in January, 25.9 °C and 14.2 °C in July. It gets 376 mm a year, with a July peak of 56 mm. April and October nights hover around freezing, and frost can still appear in May and September. Our Astana page has station counts of frost, wind and snow that give a good idea of winters on this steppe.

Atyrau weather

Atyrau lies below sea level, at −24 m, and is one of the driest cities here with 167 mm a year. January is −3.1 °C by day and −7.9 °C at night, while July is 32.8 °C and 23.3 °C. The Tengiz oil field lies in the same region, but we hold no separate normal for it, so treat Atyrau as a rough regional guide only.

Aktau weather

Aktau’s January is mild, at 3.0 °C by day and −2.6 °C at night, and its July night (23.4 °C) is the warmest in the table, with 22 °C still in August. Summer days reach 33.3 °C. It gets only 150 mm a year, but in nearby Mangystau the dirt roads turn to mud after downpours, so a rare storm can still change your day. Uralsk, further north on the same side of the country, is far colder at −7 °C by day in January.

Pavlodar weather

Pavlodar at 135 m has the coldest January day among the hubs, at −13.5 °C, with −21.1 °C at night, the coldest January night among the hubs too. July is pleasant at 26.8 °C by day and 15.4 °C at night. It gets 304 mm a year, a fifth of it in July. East of here, Semey and Oskemen both average about −20 °C on January nights.

Kazakhstan weather by season

March, April and May. Spring arrives from the south. In March, Shymkent is 14 °C by day while Petropavl is still −1.1 °C. By April the north leaves winter, with nights near 1 °C in Astana and Kokshetau. Rain peaks in the south: Almaty gets 80 mm in March, 146 mm in April and 115 mm in May. May is the most even month, from 18.5 °C in Petropavl to 29 °C in Turkistan.

June, July and August. Almost all the lowlands are hot. The July daily high tops 30 °C in Turkistan, Shymkent, Taraz, Kyzylorda, Zhezkazgan, Atyrau, Aktau, Konaev and Taldykorgan, and edges just past 30 °C in Aktobe and Uralsk. The north and Karaganda stay at 24 to 27 °C with 13 to 15 °C nights. Thunderstorms and wind do not show in these averages, so check the forecast for a mountain day.

September, October and November. Autumn moves fast. September leaves nearly the whole country walkable, from 16 to 29 °C by day. By October the north drops to 7 to 9 °C and the south holds 16 to 20 °C. November keeps the north below zero all day, while Shymkent is still at 10 °C.

December, January and February. Daily highs stay above freezing only in Shymkent, Turkistan, Taraz and Aktau, and hover around zero in four more cities, including Almaty. The north sees −9 to −14 °C by day and −16 to −21 °C at night. Station records for 2015 to 2024 show snow on about 104 days a year in Astana and 36 in Almaty.

Altitude beats latitude: mountain temperatures

From Almaty (814 m) to Shymbulak (2,290 m), the July norm falls from 28.7 °C to 19.1 °C. That drop of almost 10 °C is not far from the 12.8 °C July gap between the far south and the far north of the country. For a month-by-month table by altitude, see Almaty mountain weather.

What this means: you need a jacket at Big Almaty Lake on a July day when the city is baking, and nights there average 8 °C. At Kolsai and Kaindy June is wetter than July, and Kolsai gets 179 mm in June. For mountain points, temperature comes from ERA5-Land (about 9 km grid) and precipitation from ERA5, the value for a cell about 25 km wide rather than a mountain station. That is why Kok Tobe, Medeu and Shymbulak show the same precipitation as the city. The temperature at Shymbulak ski resort stays below zero by day from November to February. These are air temperatures for grid points, and real slopes and passes can differ. We hold no water temperatures for the lakes.

How to read these numbers

ERA5 is a computer reconstruction of past weather, and it smooths out peaks. In Almaty the weather station’s July normal is 30.5 °C against 28.7 °C computed. In Astana the gap is smaller: −10.3 °C at the station and −11.6 °C computed for January. Periods differ too, with station normals covering 1991 to 2020. So a figure elsewhere may differ by a degree or two, and that alone does not make either one wrong.

For a real forecast on your dates, use Kazhydromet, the national weather service, or your own app. Our Almaty weather page goes further into that city’s months.